The calculated model of the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of dangerous weather conditions

Stanislav Yu. Butuzov1, Denis A. Berezhnoy1, Galina M. Boiko2
1Academy of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, Moscow, Russia
2Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia, Zheleznogorsk, Russia

The paper considers the author’s methods of calculating the social effect that occurs when notifying the population about the threat of emergency situations (emergencies) caused by dangerous weather conditions to ensure the necessary level of security, including on the territory of the Republic of Crimea. To calculate the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency caused by dangerous weather conditions, a regression analysis method was used. The article proposes criteria that affect the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency. The weight values of the criteria are determined by the hierarchy analysis method. It is proposed to determine the indicators of the criteria by conducting a social experiment. A mathematical model is presented for assessing the effectiveness of the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency and the occurrence of emergencies caused by dangerous and unfavorable events based on regression analysis.

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