Influence of bordering forest areas when predicting fires

Influence of bordering forest areas when predicting fires

Alexander V. Shiroukhov, Konstantin S. Ivanov
Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, Saint Petersburg, Russia

The article discusses the procedure for determining the probability of occurrence of a particular state of a forest area; in particular, the state is fires of the greatest interest. Forecasting is based on the analysis of statistical data on the considered section of the forest territory. The influence of neighboring sites on the probability of fire in the studied area is considered as one of the factors. The assessment of the influence of the bordering areas is formed based on the analysis of the state of neighboring areas and the prevailing wind direction.

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