bezop_ch-s-en

Mariya O. Berestevich
EMERCOM of Russia, Moscow, Russia

The article provides a sequence of ranking and prioritization with examples of methods applicable for assessing territorial risks as part of targeted planning of measures aimed at protecting the population and territories.

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Yaroslav Vladimirovich Grebnev^1,2, Dinara Ildarovna Shagidulina¹, Alexander Konstantovich Moskalev¹, Petr Alekseevich Osaveluk³, Alexander Viktorovich Antonov^2,3
1Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
²Russian Emergencies Ministry for the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
³Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia, Zheleznogorsk, Russia

The territory of the Arctic every year is exposed to an increasing impact on the ecosystem due to the intensification of resource development. Active development of resources leads to an increase in the number of industrial facilities and stationary fuel storage facilities, many of which have already exhausted their design service life and the service life of these technosphere facilities is being extended. As the practice of accidents for 2020 at fuel storage facilities in the Arctic shows, monitoring of the state of these facilities is poorly organized due to the considerable remoteness and difficult weather conditions, as evidenced by numerous violations and emerging emergencies. It is necessary at a faster pace to create integrated security systems based on modern methods of monitoring and predicting risks in order to prevent accidents and prevent emergencies in the Arctic zone. In this paper, based on an analysis of emergency situations that arose in 2020 in the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the development of events was simulated during an emergency spill of oil products at a tank farm. An assessment was made of the area of oil spills on land and in a reservoir. To simulate an emergency, the Toxy + risk software product was used, and the neural network forecasting technique using the Scikit-Learn library in the Python programming language.

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Stanislav Yu. Butuzov¹, Denis A. Berezhnoy¹, Galina M. Boiko^2
1Academy of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, Moscow, Russia
²Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia, Zheleznogorsk, Russia

The paper considers the author’s methods of calculating the social effect that occurs when notifying the population about the threat of emergency situations (emergencies) caused by dangerous weather conditions to ensure the necessary level of security, including on the territory of the Republic of Crimea. To calculate the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency caused by dangerous weather conditions, a regression analysis method was used. The article proposes criteria that affect the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency. The weight values of the criteria are determined by the hierarchy analysis method. It is proposed to determine the indicators of the criteria by conducting a social experiment. A mathematical model is presented for assessing the effectiveness of the social effect when notifying the population about the threat of an emergency and the occurrence of emergencies caused by dangerous and unfavorable events based on regression analysis.

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Nikolai S. Shimon^1,2, Andrei V. Kalach^2,3, Denis I. Sotnikov², Olga N. Orlova⁴, Nikolai V. Martinovich^3
1Civil defense, public protection and fire safety of the Voronezh region, Voronezh, Russia
²Voronezh State Technical University, Voronezh, Russia
³Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, Zheleznogorsk, Russia
⁴SFA of EMERCOM of Russia, Moscow, Russia

Data on the experience of involving public associations and other non-profit organizations in activities in the field of protection of the population and territories from emergencies in the Voronezh region are presented. Special attention is paid to the issue of the effectiveness of existing public organizations (associations) whose statutory activities include emergency rescue operations (search and rescue).

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Babenyshev S.V., Ph.D. of Physico-mathematical Sciences; Malyutin O.S.; Materov E.N., Ph.D. of Physico-mathematical Sciences, Elfimova M.V. Ph.D. of Engineering Sciences Docent
Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia

The paper discusses the possibilities of the application of modern open geoinformation tools to the analysis of geographical data in some topics of technosphere and fire safety. In particular, in matters related to the assessment of the reachability zones of socially significant objects, the evaluation of the impact of building density on the distribution of fires, as well as the analysis of sources of fire-fighting water supply in the urban environment. The main calculations were performed using the R programming language. The tools used can be useful for planning surveillance activities, as well as for assessing the forces and means of garrisons for organizing fire extinguishing. The results given in the paper are obtained for the city of Krasnoyarsk, however, similar approaches can be used for analysis and visualization of a similar kind for any settlement of the Russian Federation.

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Kondratiev E.B.; Mazanik A.I., Holder of an Advanced Doctorate (Doctor of Science) in Military Sciences, Full Professor; Freidenberg A.G.; Veselov A.V.
Civil Defence Academy EMERCOM of Russia

The article analyzes the normative legal acts that reveal the main provisions that determine the procedure for bringing civil protection units in readiness to act as intended. Analyzed the reporting materials on the results of the command-staff exercises and trainings with the formations of civil protection. The experience of the Republic of Kazakhstan in alerting civil protection units involved in carrying out tasks to mitigate the consequences of a pandemic when a state of emergency is declared throughout the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan is highlighted. A problematic situation has been identified in the field of ensuring the required level of readiness of civil protection units to perform tasks for their intended purpose. Based on the analysis of possible ways to resolve the problem situation, a contradiction in the practice of the subject area under consideration is formulated and a scientific hypothesis for its resolution is proposed. The factors that should be taken into account when solving the scientific task of developing a scientific and methodological apparatus for substantiating a rational way of recruiting civil protection units are identified and systematized.

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Baturo A.N.¹, Ph.D. of Engineering Sciences, Docent; Nicheporchuk V.V.², Ph.D. of Engineering Sciences; Butuzov S.U.³, Holder of an Advanced Doctorate (Doctor of Science) in Engineering Sciences, Docent
¹ Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia
²Institute of Computational Modeling SB RAS
³SFA of EMERCOM of Russia

A “end-to-end” method for assessing territorial risks is presented, including the processing of monitoring data, presentation of results for different levels of management, and the formation of recommendations for conducting preventive measures. In contrast to the well-known methods of assessment, which are fragmented, the proposed approach provides for a closed cycle of development, implementation and control of the effectiveness of decisions. The use of heterogeneous information resources with the possibility of processing them by different technologies is realized due to the original organization of data consolidation and storage. Practical testing of the method was carried out for the basic risks of the territories of Siberia.

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Sergeev I.Y.¹, Ph.D. of Engineering Sciences; Molotkov Y.I.², Holder of an Advanced Doctorate (Doctor of Science) in Engineering Sciences; Martinovich И.V.¹; Shkaberina T.V.¹; Byshmakin A.A.^1
1 Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia
²The Siberian Institute of Management- branch of «Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration»

The work is devoted to the application of modern approaches in assessing the security of territories from man-made threats, taking into account their regional characteristics. When solving practical tasks of ensuring the security of the territory, a system of monitoring and control of possible man-made emergencies is needed, as well as the collection and analysis of objective data on possible threats and parameters of emergency situations. The formation of the monitoring system is based on a scientific and methodological apparatus, which allows for the gradual construction of the system to determine its components and elements that take into account the threats of emergencies. The article presents the result of the analysis of the subject area, considers various approaches to assessing the state of emergency protection both in Russia and abroad. The article considers the tendency to change approaches in ensuring the security of the territory, which consists in shifting the emphasis on preventive impact, i.e. management of the most dangerous risks of the territory, by improving methods and approaches in assessing territorial risks. The analysis of the studied object and its specifics is carried out for the possibility of applying the fuzzy set theory approach to solving risk assessment problems within the framework of modern concepts of critical infrastructure viability. It is determined that one of the possible solutions to the risk assessment problem may be the development of a comprehensive methodology using fuzzy logic tools based on the Harrington desirability function.

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Davidenko A.S.¹; Sharapov S.V.¹, Holder of an Advanced Doctorate (Doctor of Science) in Engineering Sciences, Full Professor; Kalach A.V.² Holder of an Advanced Doctorate (Doctor of
Science) in Chemical Sciences, Full Professor; Martinovich N.V.^3
1 Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of Emercom of Russia
²Voronezh State Technical University
³Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia

The article presents the results of analysis and synthesis of data on the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in monitoring objects. Special attention is paid to assessment of the current state of use of opportunities of pilotless aviation systems on various productions and industries and the predicted values of cumulative average annual growth rate of sales of pilotless aviation systems in the world. It was concluded that the development of unmanned aircraft systems in the investigation of fires at oil and gas facilities is applicable and promising.

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Gavrishev A.A.; Osipov D.L., Ph.D. of Engineering Sciences, Docent
North-Caucasus Federal University

This paper shows the development of the use of nonlinear dynamics methods for detecting radio signals with frequency-hopping spread spectrum (FHSS) used in communication channels of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Based on results from works [2; 3], modeling of the Hénon map, and its study using the Hurst exponent and BDS-statistics was carried out. It is proved that the Hénon map is an approximate model of radio signals with FHSS. The results obtained, as well as the results from the works [4; 5], are of great practical importance, since they prove that the use of nonlinear dynamics methods, with appropriate adaptation, as radio frequency methods, will allow, along with other approaches to UAV detection, in the future to create a sufficiently effective system for detecting and countering UAVs.

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