Yaroslav Vladimirovich Grebnev1,2, Dinara Ildarovna Shagidulina1, Alexander Konstantovich Moskalev1, Petr Alekseevich Osaveluk3, Alexander Viktorovich Antonov2,3
1Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
2Russian Emergencies Ministry for the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
3Siberian Fire and Rescue Academy EMERCOM of Russia, Zheleznogorsk, Russia
The territory of the Arctic every year is exposed to an increasing impact on the ecosystem due to the intensification of resource development. Active development of resources leads to an increase in the number of industrial facilities and stationary fuel storage facilities, many of which have already exhausted their design service life and the service life of these technosphere facilities is being extended. As the practice of accidents for 2020 at fuel storage facilities in the Arctic shows, monitoring of the state of these facilities is poorly organized due to the considerable remoteness and difficult weather conditions, as evidenced by numerous violations and emerging emergencies. It is necessary at a faster pace to create integrated security systems based on modern methods of monitoring and predicting risks in order to prevent accidents and prevent emergencies in the Arctic zone. In this paper, based on an analysis of emergency situations that arose in 2020 in the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the development of events was simulated during an emergency spill of oil products at a tank farm. An assessment was made of the area of oil spills on land and in a reservoir. To simulate an emergency, the Toxy + risk software product was used, and the neural network forecasting technique using the Scikit-Learn library in the Python programming language.
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